企业财务危机预警模型研究

本篇论文包括:开题报告,中英文摘要,论文,目录,文献综述,大纲 论文编号:CW017   字数:10557,页数:23

摘  要
自我国加入WTO以来，国外跨国企业资金大量涌入，国内企业面临许多来自世界各地企业的竞争和挑战。国内企业运营状况的好坏与国家的发展脉搏紧密相连，一旦发生财务危机特别是恶性财务危机往往会给投资者、债权人和企业，乃至国家造成极为不利的影响。如何尽最大可能地规避风险，减少损失，成为各利害关系人乃至国家非常关心的问题，吸引着许多经济学者不懈地探索，寻找更准确有效的解决方法。经济学者研究表明，有效的财务危机预警分析，有助于企业寻找财务危机发生的根源，及时采取对策，防止财务状况进一步恶化。但是，目前各种财务危机预警模型，像逻辑回归和神经网络，仍然存在这样那样的缺陷。时代召唤更完善的财务危机预警模型，来提高预测财务危机的准确率。而且，现存的财务危机预警模型仍不十分完善，建立一个完善的财务危机预警模型，有利于企业的利害关系人及时准确地做出判断，并且做出正确的决策。因此，本文对企业财务危机预警模型进行研究、初探。

关键词：财务危机预警模型；现状分析；Z计分模型  

Abstract
With our country joining WTO, the foreign transnational corporations’ funds flow into our country, the local business enterprises face how to hold tight opportunity, and reply to the competitions and challenges. The quality of local business enterprises operating conditions are related to the development of the nation economy. Once the finance crisis especially malignant finance crisis happen，they usually bring the extremely disadvantageous of influence to investors, creditors and business enterprises even to the nation. Each relation person pays attentions to how exert biggest to evade risk probably and reduce loss. Many economic scholars are looking for the accurate and effectively method. The economic scholar studies show that a perfect finance crisis early warning model contribute to a business enterprise to find finance crisis, make a plan in time, prevent from finance crisis. But the current finance crisis early-warning model, such as Logistic model still exist some weakness. The ages invoke a more perfect finance crisis early-warning method to rise estimating the accuracy of the finance crisis. And the existing finance crisis early-warning model is still not perfect. We need to build up a perfect finance crisis early-warning mode for the purpose of the relation person of business enterprises to do the judgment accurately and make the right decision. Therefore, this text carries on a preliminary study to the finance crisis early-warning model of the business enterprise.
Key words:  Finance crisis early-warning model   Z-scores model 

目录
一、导言..............................................................8
（一）、选题的研究背景................................................ 8
（二）、选题的研究意义................................................ 9
        1、理论意义 ...................................................9
        2、实践意义 ...................................................9
（三）、选题的研究方法及框架 ..........................................11
二、企业财务危机预警模型的现状分析 ....................................11
（一）、财务危机预警模型的定义 ........................................11
（二）、财务危机预警模型的作用 ........................................12
        1、预知财务危机的征兆......................................... 12
        2、预防财务危机发生或控制其进一步扩大 .........................12
        3、避免类似的财务危机再次发生 .................................12
（三）、企业财务危机预警模型存在的问题 ................................12
        1、绝大多数只运用了会计数据和财务比率 .........................12
        2、受到样本选取范围和样本时间区间的限制....................... 13
        3、财务指标的选取上的差异性 ...................................13
        4、最佳财务比率与最佳分割点的确定............................. 13
（四）、财务危机预警模型的构建........................................ 14
            1、指标体系建立的原则 .....................................14
            2、选取指标的主要因素 .....................................15
三、具体模型分析——Z计分模型......................................... 15
（一）、Z计分模型的简介 ...............................................15
        1、Z计分模型简介 ..............................................15
        2、Z计分模型函数方程介绍 ......................................16
        3、Z计分模型五项财务指标分析.................................. 16
        4、Z计分模型判断标准分析 ......................................18
（二）、Z计分模型的缺点 ...............................................19
        1、仅考虑2个极端情况（违约与没有违约） ........................19
        2、权数未必一直是固定的，必须经常调整 .........................19
        3、并未考虑景气循环效应因子的影响 .............................19
        4、公司违约与否与风险特性的关系实际上可能是非线性的 ...........19
        5、缺乏经济的理论基础 .........................................19
        6、对市场的变化不够灵敏（运用的会计资料更新太慢） .............19
        7、无法计算投资组合的信用风险 .................................19
（三）、Z计分模型的运用 ...............................................20
（四）、运用Z计分模型的建议 ...........................................24
四、结论和建议 ........................................................25
附录 ................................................................27
企业财务危机预警模型的文献综述........................................ 27
参考文献 ............................................................37
致  谢 .............................................................39

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