国际金价的影响因素分析

论文编号:GM819  论文字数:18067.页数:39

国际金价的影响因素分析
摘  要

黄金作为一种特殊的贵金属，具有货币和商品的双重性质。近几年来，国内外轩起了黄金投资的热潮，也使黄金价格经历了大幅的波动，黄金的稀缺性使其保值增值的功能再次得到体现。因此研究黄金市场中黄金投资和黄金价格变化的影响因素显得非常重要，也具有现实的意义。本文先通过介绍黄金投资现状，为下文分析黄金价格影响因素作铺垫，并详细分析了石油价格、道琼斯指数、美元指数和美国CPI等因素对黄金价格的影响，运用计量经济学的方法进行实证分析，采用EViews5.0软件，对影响黄金价格的重要因素进行分析研究，建立数量模型进行量化分析，从而为研究黄金价格的变化和黄金投资提供依据。并针对黄金投资优势提出黄金投资策略, 使投资者在实际黄金市场投资中能依据当前的经济政策、金融市场形势找准买入点和卖出点，规避风险获得利差收入。 
关键词：黄金投资  金价  实证分析  影响因素 

 
 Analyzing the influential factors of the International
 price of gold
ABSTRACT
 
 As a special kind of precious metals, gold has the two sides on the nature of currencies and commodities. In recent years, domestic and foreign gold investment upsurge, which lead to gold price fluctuated sharply. The scarcity of gold makes its value and function reflected again. So in current gold market, the further study about gold investment as well as factors of influencing gold price to change appears very important, also has realistic significance. This thesis will describe gold investment situation in order to introduce the analysis for the parts, what have impacts on the gold price. And then by making a detailed analysis on the oil prices, the dow Jones index, the dollar index,U.S CPI ect, besides, by the econometrical method and using empirical analysis of EViews5.0 software, the paper will have terrific proof for the change of  gold price and gold investment. Then provides some strategies of gold investment referring to gold investment advantages which make the investors more sensitive to the practical investment in actual gold market by using the current economic investment policy and financial market situation pinpoint and then buy point and sell point to avoid the risk and obtain the interest income.
Key words: Gold investment  Gold price  Empirical analysis  Effect factor
  
 

目  录

摘  要 I
ABSTRACT II
1引言 1
1.1研究背景 1
1.2研究内容 1
1.3研究目的 2
1.4研究方法及研究框架 2
2 黄金投资现状 4
3 国际金价影响因素关系分析 5
3.1石油价格 5
3.2美元指数 6
3.3道琼斯指数 6
3.4美国消费者价格指数 7
3.5国际政治局势 7
4 黄金价格模型的实证分析 9
4.1建立多元回归模型 9
4.2统计检验 10
4.21拟合优度检验 10
4.22 F检验 10
4.23 T检验 10
4.3 单位根检验 11
4.4 协整检验 14
4.5 格兰杰因果检验 16
4.6 各因素对黄金价格影响的分析 17
5 黄金投资的优势及投资策略 18
5.1黄金投资优势 18
5.2黄金投资策略 19
5.21储备黄金投资相关知识，合理评估个人投资偏好 19
5.22理性选择黄金投资品种 20
5.23利用闲置资金进行长期投资 20
5.24合理控制黄金投资比例 20
6 小结 21
参考文献 22
附  录 23
谢  辞 35

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