外汇风险管理和控制

中文字数:3004,中文页数:3 英文字数:1597页数:4

 外汇风险是指意料之外的汇率变动对公司价值的影响作用效果。这一章探讨了币值波动对公司实体业务的现金流动，资产和负债的影响状况。
 什么是外汇风险？
外汇风险是个简单的概念：一个潜在的收益或亏损的发生是由于汇率的变化。例如，一个人拥有日本日立公司的股权份额，如果将来日元贬值，那么他或她股权份额将受到损失。然而，这个简单的问题衍生出多个其他问题。第一，谁收益或损失？显然不只是那些附属公司，因为在一个公司中他们可能会抵消掉其他方面的头寸。并且不只是当前交易的收益或亏损，因为公司的价值构成不仅包括预期未来现金流量，还包括当前的合约。那应该考虑什么呢，现代金融告诉我们，是股东价值，但任何特定的货币变化对股东价值的影响是难以评估的，因此，必须使用代理人这个概念。学术上把汇率变动和股票价格联系起来还是薄弱的。此外，拥有一个多元化投资组合的股东，可能会发现汇率变动的负面影响可能由其他公司的收益抵消了;换言之，即外汇风险是多元化的，如果是这样，那么也许就不是风险了。最后，如果是预期的话，风险就没有风险。大多数的货币有期货或远期外汇合约的价格，这些价格给公司市场价格向何处变化的指示。并且这些合同能提供锁定预期负债变化的能力。因此，外汇风险或许更好的概念是意料之外的汇率变动。

 Exchange risk is the effect that unanticipated exchange rate changes have on the value of the firm. This chapter explores the impact of currency fluctuations on cash flows, on assets and liabilities, and on the real business of the firm.
 What is exchange risk?
Exchange risk is simple in concept: a potential gain or loss that occurs as a result of an exchange rate change. For example, if an individual owns a share in Hitachi, the Japanese company, he or she will lose if the value of the yen drops.Yet from this simple question several more arise. First, whose gain or loss? Clearly not just those of a subsidiary, for they may be offset by positions taken elsewhere in the firm. And not just gains or losses on current transactions, for the firm's value consists of anticipated future cash flows as well as currently contracted ones. What counts, modern finance tells us, is shareholder value; yet the impact of any given currency change on shareholder value is difficult to assess, so proxies have to be used. The academic evidence linking exchange rate changes to stock prices is weak.  Moreover the shareholder who has a diversified portfolio may find that the negative effect of exchange rate changes on one firm is offset by gains in other firms; in other words, that exchange risk is diversifiable. If it is, than perhaps it's a non-risk. Finally, risk is not risk if it is anticipated. In most currencies there are futures or forward exchange contracts whose prices give firms an indication of where the market expects

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