未来旅游业模拟器:一种系统的思考方式

中文字数:4562,中文页数:6  英文字数:2853 页数:7

The Tourism Futures Simulator: a systems thinking approach
 Paul A. Walker
 Abstract: Tourism operates as a complex system. In itself, the industry contains a myriad of factors and activities which are inter-dependent. In addition, there are two-way relationships to economic, social, environmental and policy factors at various spatial levels. In collaboration with the tourism industry, CSIRO has established the Tourism Futures Project which aims to develop an innovative framework for evaluating the bene?ts and impacts of nature-based tourism and the policy options for managing tourism activity and development. The case study area comprises Douglas Shire in Northern Queensland and the Cairns section of the Great Barrier Reef. This paper describes the progress in developing this framework for mapping and summarizing key social, economic and environmental outcomes of various development scenarios in annual steps to the year 2020. We refer to the framework as the Tourism Futures Simulator (TFS).
 Keywords: Tourism; Simulation model; Systems thinking; Economics; Environment; Mental models

未来旅游业模拟器:一种系统的思考方式
保罗A.沃克尔
 摘要:  旅游业经营作为一种复杂的系统。就其本身而言，该产业包含了相互依赖的产业活动和无数的因素。另外，它在经济、社会、环境和政策等各种各样的空间水平有双向关系。在与旅游产业合作方面，CSIRO已经建立了一个创新的框架来评估未来旅游业项目的利益和基于自然的政策选择对旅游业活动的发展造成的冲击。本文的研究区域是北昆士兰包括道格拉斯郡和大堡礁。并且描述了这个框架的开发和发展过程。更重要的是摸绿出了旅游业在社会、经济和环境等不同情境中的发展结果。
 关键词: 旅游业 模仿模型  系统考虑

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