Abstract
As a main raw materials to the production of chemical fiber products, prices of PTA futures attentioned by Many enterprises engaged in Chemical Fiber Production. Looking at the structure of chemical fiber industry chain, a fact can be found out: prices of PTA futures has a strong relation with price of crude oil in the Upper reaches of the raw materials and Soprt price of PTA, except these two factors, prices of PTA futures could be also influenced by the downstream products, such as polyester, polyester filament. In addition to the factors which direct impact the chemical fiber industry chain , exchange rate between RMB and U.S. Dollar could impact futures of PTA from a macroeconomic point of view. From PTA industry and factors of macroeconomic,to find the factors of PTA futures.then choose the prominent factors of PTA industry from these factors by clustering analyse and stepwise,besides,discuss the causality between prominent factors and price of PTA futures.By analyzing these facts, we could make a regression equation to predict futures of PTA in a short period of time, usually two weeks to a month. This could help corporations doing relative business make decisions when dealing with PTA.
Keywords: prices of PTA futures, clustering analyse, stepwise , causal analysis, Multivariate Linear Regression